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      地理Essay范文:Impact of Population Dynamics in Canada

      論文價格: 免費 時間:2022-02-11 15:46:38 來源:www.orient-thai.net 作者:留學作業網

      本文是地理專業的留學生Essay范例,加拿大的人口正在老齡化,盡管移民水平接近歷史新高,但人口仍面臨衰退。從公共政策的角度來看,這種人口趨勢在經濟發展、公共支出和社會組織的關系上產生了重大影響。加拿大的總生育率(TFR)約為1.5,并不是沒有遇到這種情況;此前,其他發達國家都在解決老年人日益增多、兒童和適齡就業人口日益減少的年齡結構所帶來的問題。大多數發達國家確認了這一人口問題,許多發達國家采取了各種政策來縮小其范圍并減輕其潛在影響。在北美,這種情況有點獨特。美國的生育率相對較高,剛剛低于2.1的更替水平;經常模仿針對西班牙裔美國人的高生育率,以及穩定的定居點。墨西哥的生育率遠高于更替率,而且人口普遍較新。自1972年以來,加拿大的生育率一直低于更替水平,但定居率卻相當高。最大限度的加拿大人,如果他們意識到其中的問題,他們將采取移民措施來徹底解決人口老齡化帶來的挑戰,如勞動力減少和依賴比率上升。加拿大的人口正在迅速老齡化,大約一個時代后,老年人將超過兒童。此外,對加拿大主要大都市地區的人口預測也突出表明,目前的生育率和移民趨勢將與城市截然相反。據預測,到2051年,加拿大26個主要城市中有10個城市的人口將會增加,而12個城市的人口將會減少。在那些被預測為小城市的城市中,它的面積可能只有現在的一半。發展中城市將是更新和更多樣化的。由于在加拿大勞動力占收入份額的近三分之二,勞動力增長的預期放緩增加了重要的勞動力市場和經濟增長的挑戰(Annabi, Nabil等人,2009)。

      The population of Canada is aging, and fronting population decay in spite of near record high migration levels. This demographic tendency has substantial consequences from a public policy perspective, in relations of economic evolution, public expenses and social organization. Canada, through a total fertility rate (TFR) of about 1.5, is not unaccompanied in facing this encounter; other developed nations are previously addressing the problems related by an age structure categorized by intensely growing numbers of elder people and dwindling numbers of kids and employed age citizens. Most developed nations identify this demographic encounter and numerous have applied a variety of policies to decrease its scope as well as alleviate its potential influences. Within North America the condition is slightly unique. The United States has a comparatively great fertility rate, soaring just below the replacement level of 2.1; frequently imitating a very great fertility rate aimed at Hispanic Americans, in addition stable settlement. Mexicos fertility degree is well above replacement as well as has a newer population generally. Canada has had a fertility percentage beneath replacement level ever since 1972 however has an impartially high settlement rate. Maximum Canadians, if they are conscious of the matters at play, undertake immigration will take overhaul of the challenges related by an aging populace such as a lessening work force and rising dependence ratio. Rendering to Figures Canada, Canadas population is getting old rapidly and senior citizens will outstrip kids in about an era. Population forecasts for Canadas main metropolitan areas moreover highlight how present fertility and immigration tendencies will mark cities very contrarily. It has been predictable that through 2051, 10 out of the 26 main cities in Canada will have increasing populations, whereas 12 will perceive population decay. Of the metropolises predicted to be minor, it could be as little as half their present size. And developing cities will be newer and more varied. Since in Canada labor represents nearly two-third of the revenue share, the anticipated slowing in labor force growth increases important labor market as well as economic growth challenges (Annabi, Nabil et. al. 2009).

       地理Essay范例

      Demographics are accurately at this interval of individual as well as collective interests (Demeny. 1986). The sum of children to have, in addition where to exist, is enormously personal queries; however the society likewise has an interest as these behaviors impact collective happiness. The number as well as structure of its affiliation is of pure interest to the entire society, and there is a genuine source for inter-personal impacts in favor to the related behaviors which are far away from virtuously private. What might we propose as a populace policy for Canada, in the logic of an idea of the favored demographic future as well as a debate of the means to transfer in that direction. In my opinion, this might instigate by two elements: (1) the compensations of some population development or at least evading decline, as well as (2) sluggish rather than speedier aging. Considerable demographic development can be frugally useful, or at minimum it has been in the historical, but evading decline is perhaps more significant from a financial point of vision (United Nations. 2000). Decay would mean numerous extra investments and problematic adjustments of numerous kinds, and it would comprise mainly noteworthy aging. On the further hand, environmental influences point to the difficulties of high growth. Though population growth could inspire more ecologically friendly consumption as well as technology, there is no evading the straight multiplier of population extent on ecological impact, specified our principles of living based on great use of energy and additional forms of harmful consumption (Daly. 1999). In the background of doubts associated with ecological questions, the sensible course of act would be to pursue to diminish the impact (LeGrand. 1998).

      人口統計數據準確地反映了個人利益和集體利益之間的間隔(Demeny, 1986)。孩子的總數,以及存在的地方,是巨大的個人問題;然而,社會同樣有興趣,因為這些行為影響集體幸福。其從屬關系的數量和結構對整個社會具有純粹的利益,并且有一個真正的個人影響的來源,有利于相關的行為,而這些行為遠離道德私人。我們可以提出什么作為加拿大的人口政策,在一個有利的人口未來的想法的邏輯上,以及在這個方向的轉移手段的辯論。在我看來,這可能是由兩個因素引起的:(1)一些人口發展的補償或至少避免下降,以及(2)緩慢而不是加速老齡化。相當大的人口發展可以節省開支,或者至少在歷史上是這樣,但從財政角度來看,避免人口下降可能更重要(聯合國,2000)。衰退將意味著大量額外的投資和各種各樣有問題的調整,它將主要包括值得注意的老化。另一方面,環境影響指出了高增長的困難。雖然人口增長可以激勵更多的生態友好消費和技術,但不可避免的是,人口程度對生態影響的直接乘數,具體說明了我們的生活原則,大量使用能源和其他形式的有害消費(Daly. 1999)。在與生態問題相關的懷疑的背景下,明智的做法是追求減少影響(LeGrand)。1998)

       

      In relations of specific constituents, fertility is the vital for both growth as well as aging. There is evidently limited impending for influence in respect to fertility, certain would say there is nothing. Still, reflections on nations that have principally low fertility, for example in Southern as well as Eastern Europe, propose that these very little levels arise when women have prospects in education as well as the labor force, however the family remains customary. If women have to engross the family work, particularly once there are kids, they are mainly focused on to highlighting their parts in the paid work range, where prospects are more equivalent. Fertility in a contemporary society might be made constant by strategies that would support families, irrespective of family type, decrease gender dependences in families, and apt a better allocation of earning and caring actions among males and females (Beaujot. 2000). This would not probably bring fertility beyond replacement; however it may permit more individuals to have the children that they initially envisioned. That is, we should pursue to remove the obstacles to childbearing over better partaking in the costs of kids by fathers and the wider society.

      在特定成分的關系中,生育力對生長和衰老都是至關重要的。在生育方面的影響顯然是有限的,肯定會說什么也沒有。然而,對主要生育率較低的國家(如南歐和東歐)的反思表明,當女性在教育和勞動力方面都有前景時,這些低生育率水平就會出現,但家庭仍是傳統。如果女性不得不專注于家庭工作,尤其是有了孩子之后,她們主要會專注于突出自己在有償工作中的角色,因為這種工作的前景更加平等。當代社會的生育率可以通過各種策略來保持不變,這些策略將支持家庭,不論家庭類型,減少家庭中的性別依賴,并在男性和女性之間更好地分配收入和照顧行動(Beaujot. 2000)。這可能不會使生育率超過替代水平;然而,它可能允許更多的人擁有他們最初設想的孩子。也就是說,我們應該努力消除生育的障礙,而不是更好地分擔父親和更廣泛的社會撫養孩子的成本。

       地理Essay怎么寫

      Mortality is informal since lengthier and restored lives are a extensively shared value. As designated earlier, in a period of deferred degenerative as well as hybristic mortality, main are the threat factors and management. It points to the significance of constant public education on risk factors, laterally with developments in treatment. It likewise points to the numerous other bases for drawback that discourage persons from enchanting control of their lives. Other threat factors are ecological, where more exploration is required, but there is substantial evidence on the influence of environmental excellence on population wellbeing. In effect, there is additional information on the effect of atmosphere on populace than the effect of populace on atmosphere. However here again, the more danger is the deficiency of political drive to accomplish from the exploration in a policy path.

      死亡率是非正式的,因為更長的生命和恢復的生命是廣泛共享的價值。如前所述,在延遲退化和雜種死亡的時期,主要是威脅因素和管理。它指出,隨著治療的發展,對危險因素進行持續的公眾教育的重要性。它同樣指出了許多其他的缺點,這些缺點阻礙人們對自己的生活進行迷人的控制。其他的威脅因素是生態的,這需要更多的探索,但有大量的證據表明環境卓越對人口福祉的影響。實際上,大氣對大氣的影響比大氣對大氣的影響有額外的信息。然而,在這里,更大的危險是缺乏從政策路徑的探索中實現目標的政治驅動力。

       

      Whereas immigration objectives work quite well, there is requisite for more debate on the basis for fixing these objectives in terms of together number as well as composition. Yet the Immigration Legislative Review (1997) perceived that, for numerous, sums of immigration were not an interesting topicas well as that the significant problems were not just figures. The costs as well as remunerations of migration towards the receiving society requisite fuller exploration, particularly in terms of the discrepancy costs and profits to diverse interests and fragments of the society. For example, it is determined in Sweden that by evading the inexpensive solution of guest labors, the society was encouraged to mark more space for females in the labor force, counting policies that would permit labors to have children. Whereas immigration is esteemed in terms of getting diversity, abundance, pluralism as well as contact with a wider world, population regeneration that is markedly based on immigration rather than fertility resources much change as well as possibly less probable for socializing novel members into a shared society. If one contemplates immigration in relations of pressures from exterior of Canada, one mode to grip these pressures is over higher immigration, laterally with fair trade as well as international support. Evidently, higher immigration is of attention to persons who are pursuing to transfer to Canada, and it is frequently of attention to sending societies. I would approve by the Economic Council of Canada (1991) that the situation for migration should not be completed in demographic or else economic relations, however in socio-cultural relations. Whereas immigration somewhat decreases aging, it is an overstatement to say that migration will correct the age arrangement. Likewise, immigration perhaps conveys net macro-economic remunerations, counting a source of labor market regeneration, however internal contemplations are more significant to macro-economic development. As an alternative, the case for migration requests to be made in relations of pluralism, ethnic dynamism, humanitarian apprehensions, and candidness to a wider world. Therefore the level as well as composition of migration essentials to be centered on a political judgment concerning the kind of society that we dearth to shape. We need to develop a civilization that will have virtuous adaptive capability, by being together diverse as well as cohesive. Hence the judgment is neither demographic nor financial, however in terms of the type of immigration that will exploit the occasionally contradictory components of diversity in addition to cohesiveness.

      雖然移民目標很有效,但有必要在確定這些目標的數量和組成的基礎上進行更多的辯論。然而,《移民立法審查》(1997)認為,對許多人來說,移民總數并不是一個“有趣的話題”,而且重要的問題不僅僅是數字。向接收社會移徙的成本和報酬需要進行更充分的探討,特別是關于社會各利益集團和各部分的成本和利潤的差異。例如,瑞典決定,通過回避廉價的客工解決方案,鼓勵社會在勞動力中為女性留下更多空間,包括允許勞動力生孩子的政策。盡管移民在獲得多樣性、豐富性、多元性以及與更廣闊世界的接觸方面受到尊重,但人口再生明顯是基于移民而不是生育資源,這很大程度上改變了,而且可能不太可能將新成員社會化到一個共享的社會中。如果考慮移民與來自加拿大外部的壓力之間的關系,應對這些壓力的一種方式是通過增加移民,橫向上通過公平貿易和國際支持。顯然,更多的移民對那些尋求移居加拿大的人來說是值得關注的,而且經常對移民輸出國來說也是值得關注的。我同意加拿大經濟理事會(1991)的意見,移徙問題不應在人口或其他經濟關系中解決,而應在社會文化關系中解決。雖然移民在一定程度上降低了老齡化,但說移民會糾正年齡安排就言過其實了。同樣地,移民可能會帶來凈宏觀經濟報酬(算上勞動力市場再生的一個來源),但國內的思考對宏觀經濟發展更為重要。作為另一種選擇,移徙要求在多元主義、種族活力、人道主義憂慮和對更廣泛的世界坦誠相待的關系下提出。因此,移民的水平和構成必須集中在一個政治判斷上,這個判斷涉及到我們無法塑造的社會。我們需要發展一種具有良好適應能力的文明,通過將多樣性和凝聚力結合在一起。因此,這種判斷既不是人口方面的,也不是財政方面的,但就那種除了凝聚力之外還會利用多樣性中偶爾相互矛盾的因素的移民而言。

       

      That leaves worldwide migration, where the strategy basis is best recognized. Whereas the instant demographics of immigration are rationally well proven, the part that these should show in defining immigration levels is far fewer vibrant. There are the small term remunerations to the labor market, laterally with the short term expenses of incorporation, but the long term profits of a bigger population rests on the comparative weight given to financial and ecological considerations.

      剩下的就是全球范圍內的移民,這一策略的基礎得到了最好的認可。盡管即時的移民人口統計數據在理性上得到了充分證明,但這些數據在界定移民水平時應該體現出來的部分卻遠沒有那么有活力。勞動力市場有少量的短期報酬,橫向上是合并的短期費用,但人口更多的長期利潤取決于金融和生態考慮的相對權重.

       

      In Europe, Asia as well as Australia the reactions to their condition have been diverse. Every nation has engrossed on specific policy responses to multifaceted issues. Most have selected to focus on increasing or upholding a fertility proportion adjacent replacement levels though also paying thoughtful attention to labor market problems such as growing the labor force addition of women as well as other under-represented assemblies, and later superannuation ages for workforces. Some, maximum notably Australia, have likewise looked towards immigration to decrease the probability of reductions in population extent or uncontrollable ageing tendencies. The lessons from additional industrialized states comprise the significance of having a mix of strategies in place to ensure a maintainable population base. Associated to these reactions in other nations, the Canadian approach is different. In Canada, comparatively little consideration has been paid to matters of sustainable population and nothing has been remunerated to problems of fertility rates exterior the region of Québec. The Canadian strategy response has been mainly engrossed on immigration as a basis of development for the labor market and as an extenuating feature for ageing inclinations (McDaniel, Susan, A., Julia Rozanova. 2011). More lately some consideration has been engrossed on other labor market strategies, mainly exploring ingenuities around later superannuation for Canadian workers. The region of Québec has applied more clearly pro-natalist strategies including cash incentives as well as, more lately, general childcare.

      在歐洲、亞洲和澳大利亞,人們對他們處境的反應各不相同。每個國家都專注于對多方面問題作出具體的政策反應。大多數人選擇關注增加或維持與替代水平相接近的生育率比例,盡管也對勞動力市場的問題給予了深思熟慮的關注,如增加女性勞動力和其他代表不足的集會,以及推遲勞動力的退休年齡。一些國家,尤其是澳大利亞,同樣也在尋求移民,以減少人口數量減少或不可控制的老齡化趨勢的可能性。從其他工業化國家得到的經驗教訓包括,采取綜合戰略以確保維持人口基礎的重要性。與其他國家的這些反應相比,加拿大的做法有所不同。在加拿大,對可持續人口問題的考慮相對較少,在Québec區域以外的生育率問題也沒有得到任何報酬。加拿大的戰略反應主要集中在移民作為勞動力市場發展的基礎和作為老齡化傾向的減輕特征(McDaniel, Susan, a., Julia Rozanova. 2011)。最近,一些考慮集中在其他勞動力市場策略上,主要是為加拿大工人尋找晚些時候退休的辦法。Québec地區采用了更明確的親生育策略,包括現金獎勵,以及最近的普通育兒。

       

      We might agree or disagree on these particulars; however the broader difficulty is the absence of an established basis for strategy that would pursue to endogenize population. Observing at the Australian case, McNicoll (1995) discovers that there are numerous impairments to population strategy in liberal democracies. In addition to the absence of a political source for long-term forecasting, the stress on individual well-being, and the lack of consideration to scale, there is likewise a propensity for government to perceive its electorate only in terms of systematized groups as well as its role that of judging competing statements(p. 18). In the Canadian situation, Pal (1993) has analyzed in what way numerous civil societyassemblies, frequently set up by the state, are likewise pursuing rents through the political structure and might control plans based on explicit interests. It would seem that these benefits narrate less to the population as an entire, than to precise apprehensions similar to those of family, feminism, atmosphere, wellbeing, multiculturalism or immigrants. That is, the possible components to discussion of population plan are engrossed in distinctive political dominions and they are accordingly reactive to separate relatively than common benefits. Some of the components would even be in contradiction of any discussion of population plan. There is abundant room for further investigation. We requisite to improve our considerate of the trends in the constituents of population change in directive to have additional secure bases for the forecasts assumptions. Canada essentials further analyses of the inferences of both the actual as well as the potential demographic modification. We likewise need further discerning on the policy side of the developing demographics. In heartening demographers to contemplate of policy, I am encouraged by Canadian basic democratic alignment to count everybody equally in the entire population. Whereas there is scope for those who think of the benefits of specific assemblies, like the elderly, kids, women, visible subgroups, families, or else immigrants, there are likewise compensations to looking at the entire population, and its well-being, counting everybody equally.

      我們可能同意或不同意這些細節;然而,更廣泛的困難是缺乏一個既定的基礎,以推行人口內化的戰略。通過對澳大利亞案例的觀察,McNicoll(1995)發現,在自由民主國家,人口戰略存在許多缺陷。除了缺乏政治的長期預測來源,強調個人幸福,而缺乏考慮,同樣有一個傾向“政府認為其選民只有系統化組織以及它的作用,判斷競爭聲明”(p。18)。在加拿大的情況下,Pal(1993)分析了許多經常由國家建立的“公民社會”集會以何種方式通過政治結構追求租金,并可能基于明確的利益控制計劃??雌饋?,這些好處對整個人口的影響更小,而對類似于家庭、女權主義、氛圍、福祉、多元文化主義或移民的精確擔憂更大。也就是說,討論人口計劃的可能組成部分集中在不同的政治領土,因此它們對相對分離而不是共同利益的反應。有些組成部分甚至會與任何關于人口計劃的討論相矛盾。有大量的進一步研究的空間。我們需要改進對指令中人口變化組成部分的趨勢的考慮,為預測假設提供更多的可靠基礎。加拿大要求進一步分析實際的和潛在的人口變化的推論。我們同樣需要進一步了解發展中人口的政策方面。在鼓勵人口學家思考政策時,我受到加拿大基本民主聯盟的鼓舞,認為在整個人口中每個人都是平等的??紤]到特定群體的好處,比如老年人、兒童、婦女、可見的子群體、家庭或其他移民,也有一些空間,但同樣地,考慮整個人口及其福祉,平等地計算每個人,也有補償。

       

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